Why does a 0.5°C increase matter?
While the goals of the Paris Agreement in 2015 are still technically intact, the possibility of achieving them continues to appear less and less likely. In fact, according to this new study from Stanford University published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the net-zero emissions goals associated with limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5°C might even be needed to avoid a 2°C increase.
Using Artificial Intelligence (AI), the scientists were able to accurately predict today’s temperature increases and the years they would occur from historical data trends. This then provided substantial evidence and data to back up the AI’s predicted temperatures and timeframes.
The article also raises an important question – why does half a degree Celsius matter? According to NASA, the earth has already experienced a 1.1°C rise in average temperature from pre-industrial levels. As seen around the world in recent decades, and even more frequently in recent years and months, there have been more frequent extreme weather events such as wildfires, rainfall and floods, intense heat waves, and other hazards. And as the scientists state, “because these impacts are already emerging, every fraction of a degree of global warming is predicted to intensify the consequences for people and ecosystems. As average temperatures climb, it becomes more likely that the world will reach thresholds – sometimes called tipping points – that cause new consequences, such as melting of large polar ice sheets or massive forest die-offs. As a result, scientists expect impacts to be far more severe and widespread beyond 2 C.”
The United States, and the world, is experiencing the impacts of climate change in every region and across industry sector. Droughts, floods, and heatwaves are affecting farmers and ranchers, civil engineers, utility providers, and more. NOAA has documented an increase in the number of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters since 1980 (ex: drought/heat wave, flooding, hail, hurricane, tornado, severe thunderstorm/rain, wildfire, winter storm/cold wave). In the 1980s there were 29 extreme weather events with a minimum cost of $1 billion. In the 1990s there were 53. In the 2000s there were 63. In the 2010s there were 123. In the single year of 2020 there were 22 events. And in the last three years there have been 60 of these $1 billion extreme weather events with a total cost of $434.6 billion. Overall, since 1980 there have been 314 extreme weather and climate events with a total cost that exceeds $2.476 trillion.
And the above disasters are only those that are related to the impact on humans. The events around the world that are negatively impacting our plants, animals, biodiversity, and ecosystems are often overshadowed by the financial impacts that humans are suffering. But the reality is that the impacts on the natural world and the species that inhabit these ecosystems have an extremely big influence on the overall health and stability of our planet.
With a rapidly changing environment, this closing quote speaks volumes: “Plan for what is difficult while it is easy, do what is great while it is small.” – Sun Tzu. Because perhaps sooner rather than later, planning for what is difficult might not be so easy.
